Simon Willison, in his piece, I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit:
Companies spending $200+/month/user will get you there a whole lot faster—and as noted above, as a power-user I’m at ~$1,000/month in API costs per vendor already.
Coding agents really did change everything. These are tools which burn vastly more tokens, but are also quickly becoming daily drivers for the work carried out by extremely well-compensated professionals. Right now that’s still mostly software engineers, but a coding agent is a tool that can automate anything you can do by typing commands into a computer… so they are clearly applicable to a much wider set of skilled knowledge workers.
Simon is deep in the world of AI, making him a valuable witness and, at times, a compromised one. Toward the end, he waves away AI failure stories as overhyped, but that sidesteps the harder question. It’s not whether power users find the tools indispensable. It’s whether the infrastructure cost—data centers, compute, energy—is being justified by actual business profitability. Product-market fit and return on capital are very different things. Right now, only one of them has receipts.